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Statistical Downscaling Based Correction of the HadGEM2 Family General Circulation Models: Rimac Basin, Peru

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dc.contributor.author Astorayme, MA es_PE
dc.contributor.author Gutierrez, RR es_PE
dc.date.accessioned 2024-05-30T23:13:38Z
dc.date.available 2024-05-30T23:13:38Z
dc.date.issued 2017
dc.description We would like to thank the PUPC and CONCYTEC for the opportunity given to carry out this work within the management agreement N° 27-2015 - FONDECYT between these institutions. In addition, the authors thank to SENAMHI and especially to Alan Llacza.
dc.description.abstract Lima holds ~30% of Peru’s entire population. It is listed among the 30 most populated cities of the world, and since the past decade, it faces an increasing water stress. In this context, evaluating future precipitation patterns in the Rimac Basin, which runs along Lima and provides for 60% of the drinking water to its population, is crucial. In this paper, we use statistical downscaling (SD) to correct and evaluate 22 years (Set/1982–Ago/2004) of historical daily precipitation data from the HadGEM2 general circulation models (GCM) to assess a near future time frame (Dec/2015–Nov/2045) being centered in 2030. To perform SD, we apply quantile-mapping techniques that uses a non-parametric transformation function being represented by the Bernoulli-Gamma mixture probabilistic model from eight ground weather stations. HadGEM2 models were evaluated by considering two model efficiency metrics, namely: bias and relative root mean squared error (RRSME). Our results show that the bias and RRSME were reduced to the ranges 0.7–1.6 units and -2.3%–8.3%, respectively. Likewise, we determined that the HadHGEM2-ES and HadHGEM2-CC models performed markedly better during dry and wet seasons.
dc.description.sponsorship Consejo Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación Tecnológica - Concytec
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784480618.054
dc.identifier.isi 404787300054
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12390/1145
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher ASCE
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject Rimac Basin
dc.subject increasing water stress es_PE
dc.subject quantile-mapping techniques es_PE
dc.subject.ocde https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#2.01.00
dc.title Statistical Downscaling Based Correction of the HadGEM2 Family General Circulation Models: Rimac Basin, Peru
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
dspace.entity.type Publication
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